From Climate Diplomacy to Strategic Rivalry: The Reshaping of Arctic Governance amidst Great-Power Competition (2023–2026)

Abstract

The period 2023–2026 represents a critical juncture in Arctic governance, marking the transformation from a regime characterized by "exceptionalism", the insulation of regional cooperation from broader geopolitical tensions, to one shaped by strategic competition, yet retaining sufficient institutional resilience to address functional challenges through adaptive mechanisms. This study examines how the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO's northern expansion with the accession of Finland and Sweden, and the recalibration of great-power strategies by the United States, Russia, and China have fundamentally altered the Arctic's institutional architecture and security dynamics. Drawing on regime theory, geopolitical realism, and the concept of Arctic exceptionalism, the analysis reveals three interlocking transformations: the Arctic Council's survival in a diminished capacity, the emergence of a governance gap created by Russia's exclusion, and the fragmentation of governance through sub-regional, bilateral, and middle-power initiatives. While functional cooperation on climate change, scientific research, and Indigenous issues persists, the space for such cooperation has narrowed considerably as re-securitization reshapes the region's strategic landscape. The study advances a reconceptualization of Arctic exceptionalism, arguing that the region remains empirically distinct but no longer insulated from geopolitical volatility. Policy implications for Arctic states, non-Arctic actors, and international institutions are examined, alongside three future scenarios: continued fragmentation, institutional adaptation, or escalation and crisis. The Arctic's capacity to avoid a new Cold War depends on whether strategic rivalry can be managed without destroying the cooperative frameworks painstakingly built over three decades.