Economit Journal: Scientific Journal of Accountancy, Management and Finance

The 2026 Strong El Niño Triggers a Compounding Drought-to-Flood Cascade, Elevating Multisectoral Risks to East African Agriculture and Public Health

2026-07-31T07:13:54+00:00

The World Meteorological Organization projects the 2026 El Niño to rank among histories strongest, with an 80% probability of onset between June and August and a 63–65% chance of attaining super-strength from October 2026 through February 2027, posing a dire threat to climate-vulnerable East Africa. This paper provides a holistic, predictive assessment of the event's cascading consequences for agriculture and public health across the region. Our synthesis integrates climatic forecasts from WMO, NOAA, and ICPAC; agricultural and food-security indicators from FAO GIEWS, FEWS NET, and IPC classifications; health surveillance data from WHO; and historical lessons from the 1997–1998 and 2023–2024 episodes. We project a distinct biphasic pattern: drought from June to September curtails planting and growth in western unimodal zones; Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya followed by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole-driven deluge from October to December. This second phase unleashes widespread flooding across Kenya, Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and Uganda, destroying standing crops, spoiling stored grain, and rupturing transport and market infrastructure. Staple cereal yields, notably sorghum and millet, could plummet by up to 30%. Concurrently, inundated landscapes amplify Rift Valley fever transmission, triggering substantial livestock losses. The compound effect would push roughly 8.8 million people across 22 high-risk nations into acute food insecurity; Somalia alone may see 6 million individuals facing IPC Phase 3 or worse. Health systems will grapple with surges in cholera, malaria, dengue, and heat-related morbidities, with critical hotspots centering on the Lake Victoria and Tana River basins, the Juba and Shabelle catchments, and densely populated urban hubs like Nairobi. This impending super-El Niño constitutes an unprecedented humanitarian emergency, yet its forecast lead time offers a tangible preparedness window. We urge immediate investments in early-warning system upgrades, climate-resilient crop varieties, irrigation and flood defenses, expanded disease surveillance and vaccine stockpiles, robust water-sanitation-hygiene programs, scaled humanitarian logistics, and targeted interventions addressing the structural poverty and land-use pressures that magnify climatic shocks.

A Systematic Literature Review of Digital Payment in Ethiopia: Challenges, User Satisfaction, and Socio-Economic Impact

2026-08-01T05:21:39+00:00

This systematic literature review examines the challenges, user satisfaction determinants, and socio-economic impact of digital payments in Ethiopia. Following PRISMA guidelines, a comprehensive search of Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, the Addis Ababa University Institutional Repository, and African Journals Online was conducted, covering literature published between 2015 and 2026. The review synthesises findings from peer-reviewed journal articles, institutional reports, and postgraduate theses, employing the Technology Acceptance Model and Diffusion of Innovation theory as analytical frameworks. The findings reveal that while Ethiopia's digital payment ecosystem has experienced remarkable growth, exemplified by Telebirr's 46.6 million users and digital transactions exceeding 18 trillion Birr annually, persistent challenges impede the transition from access to meaningful usage. Five interconnected categories of barriers are identified: infrastructure deficits, trust and security concerns, economic and affordability barriers, organizational and institutional weaknesses, and socio-cultural factors. Trust emerges as the critical mediating factor between service provision and user satisfaction, serving as the primary adoption driver. User satisfaction is determined by trust, convenience, speed, security, cost, and user experience, with integrated theoretical models demonstrating strong predictive power (R² = 0.675). Socio-economic benefits are evident across financial inclusion, economic formalization, social empowerment, and enterprise development, though benefits remain unevenly distributed. The National Bank of Ethiopia's Digital Payment Strategy 2026–2030 represents a necessary policy reorientation toward trust-building and active usage. Recommendations include strengthening digital infrastructure, reducing transaction costs, enhancing consumer protection, and prioritizing gender-responsive innovation.

Leapfrogging into Digital Credit: The Trade-off between Financial Inclusion and Portfolio Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Analysis of Kenya and Ethiopia

2026-08-01T05:27:42+00:00

The rapid proliferation of mobile-based lending across Sub-Saharan Africa has generated a fundamental tension: digital credit promises financial inclusion at scale yet carries inherent portfolio risks that threaten lender stability and borrower welfare. This study examines this inclusion-risk trade-off through a comparative analysis of Kenya, a mature digital credit market, and Ethiopia, an emerging latecomer with significant leapfrogging potential. Drawing on bank-level loan performance data, regulatory frameworks, and institutional analysis spanning 2014–2025, the study documents Kenya's "develop first, regulate later" trajectory, which achieved remarkable inclusion, 5.5 million borrowers, and Sh76.8 billion in disbursements but at the cost of a micro-loan default crisis, with loans below KES 1,000 defaulting at 83.1 percent. Four determinants-loan appraisal, borrowing costs, disbursement management, and repayment terms mediate this trade-off. Ethiopia, by contrast, has adopted a proactive regulatory framework but constrained inclusion through a bank-account mandate that excludes the unbanked majority. Early risk indicators, unsecured lending at scale, fee opacity, and emerging defaults suggest vulnerabilities are already present. The comparative analysis yields five stylized facts and five policy recommendations for latecomer economies: recalibrate credit access, strengthen consumer protection, invest in financial infrastructure, adopt regulatory sandboxes, and enhance supervision. The findings extend leapfrogging theory, demonstrating that technological leapfrogging does not automatically imply regulatory leapfrogging. Ethiopia has a narrow window to integrate innovation, inclusion, and stability from the outset, offering lessons for emerging digital finance markets worldwide.